Amidst the stream of recent posts elsewhere about the results of the bi-annual World Beer Cup, held in conjunction this year with the Craft Brewers Conference in San Diego, California, was a little reported story about how big craft beer is growing on an international scale. About a year ago, I spent a few weeks traveling around Japan, seeing the country and trying its beers. I was impressed with the relatively young craft beer scene across the country, with its pockets of excellent breweries.

The competition has grown quite international since its early days, with 58 countries competing this year. Breweries from 21 countries took home medals. When the Brewers Association announced its recent awards, American brewers, as expected, pretty well cleaned house with 158 awards. From there, you’d expect traditional brewing countries, such as German, Belgium, and the Czech Republic to have dominated the rest. While German brewers took home a respectable 25 medals, Japanese breweries nearly outlasted their Belgian counterparts with 10 medals to the Belgian’s 11. Here’s the interesting part: German breweries, as expected, won medals in German styles and Belgian brewers won medals in Belgian styles. Japanese brewers, like their American counterparts, won medals across a broad swath of international styles, from hefeweizen to cream ale to Scottish ale and even in the experimental category. That is an impressive achievement. Brewer Bryan Baird of the Baird Brewing Company won two medals as did the producers of the Swan Lake brands. My congratulations go out to the Japanese brewers for their impressive performance.

-Baird Brewing Co, Big Red Machine Fall Classic Ale, Cellar or Unfiltered Beer, Bronze
-Baird Brewing Co, Nide Beer - The Ale, American-Style Cream Ale or Lager, Bronze
-Fujikankokaihatsu co., LTD, Fujizakura kogen Beer “Weizen”, South German-Style Hefeweizen/Hefeweissbier, Silver
-Hyokoyashikinomori Brewery Tentyokaku Co., Inc., Swan Lake Beer Amber Swan Ale, American-Style Amber/Red Ale, Silver
-Hyokoyashikinomori Brewery Tentyokaku Co., Inc., Swan Lake Beer Porter, Robust Porter, Bronze
-Kiuchi Brewery Hitachino Nest Beer, Espresso Stout, Coffee Flavored Beer, Bronze
-Kumazawa Brewing Co., Shounan Liebe, German-Style Schwarzbier, Gold
-Nasu Kohgen Beer., Ltd., Scottish Ale, Scottish-Style Ale, Bronze
-Sekinoichi Shuzo Co. Ltd, Iwate Kura Beer Oyster Stout, Experimental Beer (Lager or Ale), Silver
-Shimono Co., LTD, Kaorino Nama, German-Style Kölsch/Köln-Style Kölsch, Bronze

Congratulations are also due to Molson Coors for its strong showing with the Blue Moon Brands, culminating in a win for the Blue Moon Brewing Company and brewer Warren Quilliam in the Large Brewing Company category.

The Hop Crisis

The celebrations of craft beer producers have a darkening cloud hanging over them. The talk among brewers and distributors in recent months has turned from their recent successes to the possibility of a severe shortage of raw materials for use in the brewing process. While craft brewers produced a greater number of so-called fresh hop beers, those brewed with hops fresh from the field, hop growers and traders were becoming increasingly concerned about the sorry state of the world’s hop supply. The first whispers focused on a poor hop harvest in the Yakima Valley region of the Pacific Northwest and in the Hallertau region of southern Germany.

Despite recent increases in American demand for hops, worldwide hop production is significantly reduced from previous years. Between the late 1990s and early 2000s, an excess of hop production caused price depression. According to a recent seminar developed by the Brewers Association, overall hop production today is now ten to fifteen percent below the current demand, which has caused a tightened market. Worldwide hop acreage has dropped almost fifty percent in the last ten years, from 203,000 acres to 113,000, as farmers have chosen to plant crops other than hops. In 1996, the United States boasted 44,161 acres of hops. By 2006, that number had dropped to 29,435.

In addition to the loss of hop acreage, the remaining stocks are subject to poor weather, fires, and other catastrophes. A slight loss of the existing hop crop can cause reverberations and volatility throughout the hop marketplace. In Slovenia, which is a leading grower of the Styrians variety, hop growers may have lost as much as half of their crop to a hailstorm. A devastating warehouse fire in Washington State and fires at two hop-drying kilns caused a twenty percent decline in available hops.

The result has been a substantial increase in hop prices on the spot market for those who did not secure long-term contracts with suppliers. In the recent past, brewers could pay as little as $1.70 for a pound of the popular Cascade hops. This price hurt growers whose costs exceeded the sale price. Prices have now reached historic levels, with Cascade hops hitting seven dollars per pound and more, and with other varieties exceeding ten dollars per pound on the open market. The scarcity of hops has caused increase competition among world brewers. Many high alpha acid American grown hops, as well as aroma hops, are going abroad for brewers in China and Europe that now can benefit from the American dollar’s dropping value.

The difficult situation has resulted in two different reactions depending upon which side of the crisis you are facing. According to Ralph Olson, General Manager and Owner of HopUnion LLC, the growers who remained in the hop growing business are now enjoying their present situation. Dr. Johann Pichlmaier, president of the Association of German Hop Growers based in the Hallertau region of Germany, agrees. “The market is quite tight and times are good again.”

Things are not so good for the brewers who now have to meet higher hop prices. Olson concedes that he foresees that some brewers may have to shut down due to a lack of available hops. The danger is most present for those brewers that failed to contract enough hops before the shortage, according to the Brewers Association. While larger breweries buy options on raw materials several years in advance and existing customers will likely continue to receive their hop orders, smaller brewers may find their access to specific and favored hop varieties limited. This may lead some brewers to have to switch varieties and alter the flavors and aromas of their beers.

At the Brewers Association seminar, Olson counseled craft brewers to seek contracts with hop suppliers to combat against future price increases. “What we really need is for brewers to understand that it is OK to have longer than a year’s supply of hops…An extra inventory of hops can come in handy should sales go better than normal during a given year.” Olson also reported to brewers that he does not see the situation improving in the near future. “It is not going to get better soon, but will be likely just as bad, or worse, for the crops from 2008 and 2009, in other words, for beers brewed from now through 2010.”

The Malt Crisis

In addition to the global hop shortage, brewers are also starting to get hit with price increases for malt as well. Barley crops have taken a hard hit in recent years. In the last two years, North American brewers and producers have seen a significant decrease in their supplies as the demand for barley has risen. Poor global barley yields for two consecutive harvests have resulted in a barley shortage. Some meager worldwide harvests, which have largely occurred due to poor weather conditions, have sent European and Australian brewers to North American suppliers for barley. Due to high corn prices and demand, a shift in feed grain has caused farmers to move away from corn and towards barley and oats, further stressing the amount of barley available for malting. Recent poor returns for growers and maltsters has led to either a move away from barley planting or the use of barley crops in the production of bio-fuel, which results in a forecast of further reduction of barley acreage in the future.

Brewers have already seen the price of several varieties of base malt increase 5 to 10 cents per pound. Despite these increases and dire warnings, Ian Ward, President for Sales and Marketing at the Brewers Supply Group, counsels that the situation is likely to improve in the next season. “Most maltsters have by now purchased all the barley requirements they are likely to need since they have had to make contracts for malt with brewers,” he said at the recent Brewers Association seminar. “As the inquiries from maltsters have fallen, farmers who have grain left to sell have found themselves having to be somewhat less bullish. What this means for the brewer is that prices are not likely to rise further in 2008 based on barley cost.” There is, of course, always the possibility of price increases looming, warns Ward. “The upward trend in oil prices and currency may play a role in spot purchase malt, especially from overseas. What is important now is what futures are trading for in the 2008 crop and how the growing season plays out from April next year.”

So What Does It All Mean?

The increases will certainly affect smaller producers and those brewers who did not secure the necessary contracts in advance. But while hop and malt prices have increased on the spot market in recent months, many brewers have contracts for their raw materials that will serve them for several months if not years to come. There is no agreement how the prices, or the perception of price increases, will affect six pack and keg prices and when the effects will be seen. It is possible that some small producers may use the perception of the raw material cost increases as cover for a desire to increase the prices of their products. In the dozen or more informal conversations I have had with brewers over the last few weeks, not one has expected to keep his prices stagnant. Most expect to implement a price increase of anywhere from fifty cents to one dollar per six-pack by Spring 2008.

The Birth of A Craft Conglomerate

After years of working together in a sales and marketing joint venture called the Craft Brands Alliance (CBA), the Widmer Brothers Brewing Company and the Redhook Ale Brewery have announced their intention to merge into one company. The new brewery, which will be called the Craft Brewers Alliance, will create one of the nation’s largest craft breweries. Kurt Widmer will serve as the company’s chairman of the board and Paul Shipman will serve as chairman emeritus, effectively starting his retirement from the beer trade. Redhook’s current president and chief operating officer Dave Mickelson and Terry Michaelson, president of the Craft Brands Alliance, will serve as co-CEOs of the new company. The deal with also include Widmer’s forty-percent share of the Goose Island Brewing Company of Chicago, Illinois.

“I believe that the merger will allow us even greater opportunity to deliver unique and great-tasting beers for our customers,” said Kurt Widmer, president and brewmaster of Widmer Brothers. “The two companies have a common goal—we both strive to brew the best possible beer for our customers.” “Our combination of talented people, high-quality beers and first-class brewing operations presents tremendous advantages for the combined company,” said Paul Shipman, founder and chief executive officer of Redhook. “The two breweries have worked well together over the past few years, and I’m confident that we will be even stronger as one company.”

Relations have not always been so rosy between the two companies. In a 2006 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Redhook complained that its brands were getting shortchanged in the sales and marketing alliance it forged with Widmer in 2004. In that filing, Redhook said, “The Company believes its third quarter sales in CBA territory have declined due to CBA’s unsuccessful execution of its sales and marketing strategy for Redhook’s core and emerging products. During this same period, CBA has been very successful selling the Widmer and Kona products.”

While the two breweries have agreed to merge, the deal remains subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, which includes the voice of Anheuser-Busch, which owns a significant percentage of both Redhook and Widmer. The breweries hope to complete the merger by first quarter of 2008 and expect to maintain both the Redhook and Widmer brands in the marketplace. The all stock transaction will result in Widmer shareholders and existing Redhook shareholders each holding approximately fifty-percent of the outstanding shares in the new company.

Widmer has by far been the more successful of the two breweries, growing from 199,000 barrels in 2004 to 269,000 barrels in 2006. Redhook produced 271,600 in 2006, on weak to stagnant sales. After releasing news of the merger, Redhook announced a decline in profits for the first three quarters of 2007. As a private company, Widmer does not release sales figures.

Aftermath of the Deal

After years of toiling as the little kids, it is now clear that craft brewers must view themselves as nearing adulthood. With the renewed interest of domestic macro-breweries and the merging and distribution alliances of larger craft breweries, regional breweries will have to consider their strategic visions for the future. What was once for many just about the beer and fun is now about serious business.

–Article appeared in January 2008 issue of Beverage Business Magazine.

When predictions that the sky would start falling in the craft beer world over forecasted price increases a few months ago, I initially trained most of my focus on those breweries whose prices went up before their present contracts even came due (in many cases, the more established craft breweries have raw materials contracts going out a year or more). Despite the fact that their suppliers continued to meet their contract requirements (and prices), we started to see wholesale prices creep up a little bit in February and then considerably higher in March. While many American craft brewers have already raised their prices, even if minimally so, there are still many breweries in New England and beyond that have yet to even raise their prices.

Despite the delayed onset of the prices increases that we have been bracing against for months, drinkers in the Boston area began to see beer prices rise sharply as early as three months ago. In some places, beer went up 50 cents, in others a dollar. In a few dastardly holes, extortionists raised prices even higher. And all of this happened long before the bar owners even received their updated price sheets and felt the pinch of an extra five or ten dollars per keg. So to recap, price increases just went into effect, yet some bar owners have had their hands in the back pockets of their customers for a couple of extra months.

In justifying the price increases, I’ve heard a few pub owners break out the old gem, “the beer is good, so you should be willing to pay more for it.” That’s fine and all, but in this case the money is going directly into the publican’s pocket, not to the brewers.

Things recently hit a fever pitch for my friend Todd Alstrom, one half of the BeerAdvocate.com brother team, during a visit to Bukowski’s. A longtime fixture on the Boston better beer scene, Bukowski’s (with locations in Boston and Cambridge) has a reputation for loud music, obstinate servers, and absolutely outrageous prices. In 2002, I visited the bar soon after the Stone Brewing Company entered the Massachusetts market. After pulling up to the bar, I ordered an Arrogant Bastard. A few minutes later, I received a 12-ounce pour of the beer and a bill for $5.25! I eventually figured out that the bar was marking up the beer 500-percent over its wholesale cost.

So on Todd’s recent visit, he encountered the following highway robbery prices:

-Southern Tier Jah-va 12 ounce pour for $8
-Southern Tier Backburner 12 ounce pour for $7
-Young’s Winter 16 ounce pour for $6.75
-Sixpoint Sweet Action 12 ounce pour for $6
-Blanche de Bruxelles Wit 12 ounce pour for $6.25
-Dogfish Red & White 10 ounce pour for $10
-Harpoon IPA 16 ounce pour for $4.95
-Boulder Mojo Risin’ 12 ounce pour for $6.25
-Harviestoun Old Engine Oil 12 ounce pour for $7
-Brooklyn Pils 14 ounce pour for $5
-Abita Restoration 16 ounce pour for $6
-Opa Opa IPA 16 ounce pour for $5.75
-Harpoon Brown 16 ounce pour for $6
-PBR 16 ounce pour for $2.99
-Weihenstephaner Hefe 16.9 ounce pour for $7.75

It’s hard to quite know where to start here. Putting aside the fact that Buk’s charges an extra buck per glass of Jah-va stout versus Backburner when both have the same keg price, you really have to wonder just how malicious a beer pricer can get when it comes to the Brooklyn Pils and the Harpoon IPA. The Brooklyn beer sells for $125 for a 15.5 gallon keg, while Harpoon IPA sells for $120 for a 13.2 gallon keg. By the numbers, I should be paying less for the Brooklyn Pils then I do for the Harpoon IPA, but this not the case. In fact, I pay a little more for Brooklyn and get 2 ounces less of beer! And can someone explain why I should be paying an extra $1.05 per pint of Harpoon Brown, a beer which costs the same wholesale as the Harpoon IPA? Then we get to the Weihenstephaner…While the keg cost is a little higher and the pour slightly more generous (less than one ounce more than a pint), the keg cost is only $20 more than the similarly sized Harpoon IPA keg. Yet I am asked to pay nearly $8 for a beer that many local bars (Redbones in Somerville included), charge $4.50 for. On a single keg of the tasty hefe-weizen, assuming a ten percent draft loss with overpours, Bukowski’s is taking in $700 for a single keg, with a cost of $145, a price to cost ratio of almost 5 to 1). Compare that to the $470 Buk’s takes in for a keg of Harpoon IPA, with a cost of $120, and you can begin to picture the guys in masks riding up to your stagecoach.

For the last few months, I’ve been keeping an eye on wholesale price increases in anticipation of the impending “crisis.” Let’s take a look at some of the prices that we have seen here in the Massachusetts market, from January 2007 to March 2008 (prices reflect 15.5 gallon “half-barrel” kegs unless otherwise noted). The first column reflects prices (if available) in January 2007, the second January 2008, and the third March 2008.

Dogfish Head Craft Brewery (Atlantic Importing)
-60 Min IPA $129 $129 $139
-90 Min $175 $175 $189

Stone Brewing Company (Atlantic Importing)
-Stone IPA $129 $129 $149
-Arrogant Bastard $129 $129 $159
-Ruination $179 $179 $219

Bear Republic Brewing Company (Atlantic Importing)
-Hop Rod Rye $149 $149 $179

So in comparing Stone and Dogfish, Dogfish Head’s price increases seem pretty reasonable overall, between $10 to $14. Stone’s seem a bit higher, from $20 to $30 and $40. The jump on Ruination is a bit troubling overall and cannot simply be put off by an increase in hop prices (regardless of how stupid hoppy this beer may be).

Now if you were a bar owner and the price difference between these kegs in your mind really represented a substantial hit to your business (keep in mind the margins employed by Bukowski’s, extortionate as they may be), you might consider doing some shopping around for bargains. And you would find them. Great Divide Brewing Company offers its Old Ruffian Barleywine for $169 per keg, while North Coast Brewing offers its Old Rasputin Imperial for $156 and Old Stock Ale barleywine for $147 per keg. Compared to the Ruination price (these beers in my mind compete insofar as they represent sipping beers, not session beers), these respected brands seem like a steal.

By why bother restricting your shopping to the American craft market? While it may have been on fire in recent years, American craft brewers have much to thank their European counterparts for. Arguably the ancestor of much of America’s brewing creativity, Belgium is looking more and more like a steal recently. The same goes for German, Czech, Italian, Scandinavian, and British breweries. Despite the global scope of the above-mentioned raw material problems, the Boston area (a major market for better import brands) has seen next to no price increase on European “craft” beers. As I wrote in a very controversial column for BeerAdvocate Magazine, titled “Price Creep,” classic European brands often bring hard-to-match quality at a much more reasonable price than American craft brands. The Atlantic Importing lineup of Belgian and German draft beer (and bottles) has seen almost no price increases. Some brands have even seen a substantial decline in price in the last year (St Bernardus Abt 12, a beer many compare flatteringly to Westvleteren 12, went from $165 in January 2007 to $145 in March 2008 for a 30 liter Sankey keg). Only Brasserie de Rocs, Urthel, and Pauwel Kwak have gone up and only by a few dollars (seven in the case of Urthel Hop It!). Oddly enough, it was Brasserie de Rocs that I focused on as a wildly underpriced brand in the column.

While it may be time to start looking to imports for better value, don’t forget your price friendly local brands. Western Massachusetts juggernaut Berkshire Brewing hasn’t raised prices for its bottles or kegs a single cent since January 2007. Despite this, I’ve seen local package stores and bars consistently jack-up the price of this great brewery’s 22-ounce bombers.

And what about the small price increases we’ve seen for some breweries? A price increase of $10 per keg for a brewery such as Harpoon (from $110 to $120 for a 13.2 gallon keg) is probably long overdue. By the numbers, however, the cost increase shouldn’t result in anything more than a single dime being added to the price of your pint. Similarly, we’ve seen the following small price increases for these popular brands from the Craft Brewers Guild distributorship. (Prices in the first column are January 2007 or most recent period before price increase and the second column prices reflect March 2008 costs).

-Allagash White $135 $141
-Boulder Mojo $120 $130
-Clipper City $115 $130
-Gearys $110 $120
-Magic Hat $104 $110
-Sierra Nevada $120 $125
-Wachusett $120 $125

From a consumer’s perspective, those are entirely reasonable wholesale cost increases that shouldn’t result in major price changes at their favorite pubs. Now when we look at a brewery such a Rogue Ales, whose Dead Guy Ale jumped early from $140 to $165 (13.2 gallon keg), questions should be raised or bar owners should opt for a different brand.

How about our friend Weihenstephaner, which by the way, also hasn’t gone up a cent in more than a year.

I end this mini-rant by confirming that I do believe that the raw materials situation requires some price increases and that breweries should, to the extent possible with competition, seek to follow the example of industry leader Anheuser-Busch and occasionally institute modest price increases (versus stagnation for more than a year). But when a brewery’s prices jump substantially more than their competitors, consumers should be alerted to the red flags.

Moreover, I also believe that the actions of some greedy bar owners are causing the public’s perception of the hop/malt/gasoline/glass shortages to hit “crisis” levels. To be clear, a 500-percent markup on beer is robbery, not in the sense of someone holding a gun to your head and making you order the pint (14 ounces), but in the sense of robbing respect from the client and dollars from his wallet. In the long run, it’s also bad for business as smart consumers aren’t likely to order a second beer or linger at a place with $7 12 ounce glass prices. In The Good Beer Guide to New England,” I defined a “great beer bar” as an establishment which has “an extraordinary selection of craft beers, respects their clients in terms of keeping prices fair, holds events promoting craft beers (from beer dinners to brewer meet-and-greets), makes craft beer key to their business, and also offers true character as pubs.” While I used to enjoy Bukowski’s and still occasionally stop by for a single pint (or 12 ounce pour as it now may be), it never came close to making my shortlist for inclusion in the book because of its abusive price relationship with its customers. I’d hate to see more bars follow its unfortunate lead.